Visions of the Future: "The World" in 2057

The story in "2057: The World" follows two astronauts on the verge of solving the worldwide energy crisis. See, in 50 years the two superpowers (China and the US) send a joint expedition to the space station to work on the solar panel problem. See, solar panels are too inefficient; they only capture a small part of the spectrum. To be truly feasible as an energy source, they need to be at least 50% efficient (right now, in 2007, they're only about 20% efficient). But the scientists don't seem to be getting closer, so the superpowers pulled everyone off the station with the exception of our 2 heroes, one from each nation.

Meanwhile, on Earth, the energy crisis is causing the world to ration the oil supply and China and the US start skirmishing over the remaining fields. While talking about the fighting, the program shows us some of the really neat possibilities of future body armor. It will feel like normal clothing but become bulletproof when a high-velocity object (e.g. a bullet or shrapnel) hits it. Also, micro cameras and screens might make soldiers invisible while GPS, monitoring devices and doctors on the other end will be able to help wounded soldiers. Very cool.

Back to the space station and our astronaut buddies have a visitor. She's a tech support person and she commuted to space by taking an elevator. The elevator cable is made of carbon filaments (incredibly strong, incredibly thin things that have recently been created). By placing the 'bottom' of the elevator on a platform in a part of the Pacific that has relatively mild weather and the 'top' in geosynchronous orbit, the imaginings of Robert Heinlein and other science fiction greats might become real.

After she leaves, the astronauts have a breakthrough and suddenly seem to have created solar panels with 83% efficiency. After a brief explanation of how current experiments with different substances might lead to at least a doubling of current solar panel efficiency, we see the Chinese astronaut get a call from his government stongly encouraging him to steal the discovery and give it to them without letting the Americans see it. When he seems reluctant, they threaten his wife and give him 4 hours to deliver the data.

Lest we think the Chinese are bad guys, the Americans promptly call and give the US astronaut the same suggestion: give it to us and don't let the other guys have it. Although, since they don't threaten anyone's life, their suggestion does not have the same impact and the two astronauts try to work together to save Chinese astronaut's wife. They come up with a plan and demonstrate a new use for an old technology: lasers. In the future, we will harness the power, speed and carrying capacity of lasers to be an amazing method of communication. Our heroes bypass their normal communications that go through one or the other of their governments to directly contact the media with their discovery.

They save the wife and the world. After, there is a ridiculously sappy scene with the two men making comments about the futility of trying to predict 50 years into the future and some silly little predictions of their own.

The End!

Now, my complaints.

First, I know that a discovery a few years ago revealed that "metamaterials" can block out specific wavelength of light and that there is hope that, by combining these metamaterials we could eventually have an invisibility cloak of some kind. When the promo for this show had 'invisible soldiers', I expected something about this. I know it's petty, but I was disappointed.

Now, on to real complaints: Scientists may be brilliant about science, but they are complete morons about economics.

The program correctly pointed out that, at this time, solar panels cannot compete with oil as a major source of energy. They are simply not efficient enough. Now, if we were to increase the efficiency of a given size panel, we could make them more competitive with oil. Other possibility to shift the competitiveness of solar power would be to decrease the costs involved in collection of solar energy or increase the cost of oil. And that is what the program completely missed.

If there really was an energy crisis in 2057, all that would mean (in the absence of government interference) is that the price of oil skyrocketed. If that happened, it would eventually cost more than the solar energy. When that happened, people would switch over in droves, even if solar panels were not yet efficient in an objective sense. It's all a matter of relative costs and benefits.

Now, the most stupid thing about this program is the mention of rationing of oil. Nothing, and I do mean nothing is more harmful to the production of a needed commodity and its alternatives that rationing. You only need to ration when you have an artificially low price for something. If you have that artificially low price, you discourage innovation and exploration because those things are expensive. If there isn't hope of a high return on your costs, why would you spend the money? It also discourages investments in the alternatives to the product in question because those things are kept at a relatively high price as compared to the artifically low one. Rationing, by its very nature, causes a supply crisis in whatever was supposed to be fixed.

I have no doubt that one day we will get the bulk of our energy needs satisfied from something other than oil. Whether it is one of the 'alternatives' currently on the table or something we haven't thought of yet, I don't know. But I know that rationing and other forms of government interference will only delay that day, not help it along.



Oh, and just a personal pet peeve. The US officials in contact with the American President via videophone (talking about the armed conflicts, energy crisis and progress by the astronauts) were standing in a semicircle at small podiums with lights shining directly on each person in an otherwise dimly lit room. It looked futuristic and all, but there is no way you can convince me that people will ever conduct business that way, with nowhere to sit, with bad lighting and nowhere to spread out papers and other business paraphernalia.